Could MercadoLibre Be Greg Abel's First Major Berkshire Hathaway Bet?

Greg Abel Faces a Familiar Crossroads at Berkshire Hathaway

As Greg Abel settles into his role leading Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B), analysts are watching closely to see which major investments he might pursue that his predecessor Warren Buffett left on the table. One name generating significant discussion: MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI), Latin America's dominant e-commerce and fintech platform — a company with striking parallels to Amazon, but without the eye-watering capital expenditure demands that ultimately led Berkshire to exit its Amazon position entirely.

Berkshire's Amazon Journey Offers a Telling Blueprint

Berkshire's history with Amazon is instructive. Back in early 2019, one of Buffett's investment lieutenants initiated a position in Amazon — a move that prompted Buffett to publicly call himself an "idiot" for not acting sooner. Yet by the first quarter of 2026, Berkshire had sold its remaining Amazon shares, with the conglomerate's appetite for the stock apparently diminished by Amazon's massive and ongoing capital expenditure requirements. Amazon spent approximately $152 billion in capex over the trailing twelve months, a figure that reflects its aggressive push into cloud infrastructure, AI, and data centers.

MercadoLibre, by contrast, spent roughly $1.3 billion in capex over the same period — more than 99% less than Amazon. That stark difference matters enormously to a firm like Berkshire, which has historically prized capital-efficient businesses.

What Makes MercadoLibre Compelling

MercadoLibre began life as an e-commerce marketplace and has since evolved into a diversified technology conglomerate spanning logistics and fintech — the latter through its Mercado Pago platform. This trajectory echoes Amazon's own expansion beyond retail, but MELI's growth levers don't require hyperscaler-level infrastructure spending.

The company's financial momentum is difficult to ignore. In the first quarter of 2026, MercadoLibre reported revenue of $8.8 billion, representing 49% year-over-year growth. That follows a 44% revenue increase across all of 2025, indicating the growth trajectory is consistent rather than episodic.

Berkshire also has relevant experience in the region. The conglomerate was an early investor in Brazilian fintech StoneCo (NASDAQ: STNE) and holds a stake in Nu Holdings (NYSE: NU), the Latin American digital bank. That institutional familiarity with the region's fintech dynamics could give Berkshire's investment team a meaningful edge in evaluating MercadoLibre's Mercado Pago unit, which analysts identify as the company's fastest-growing segment.

Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Positioning

Not everything in MercadoLibre's recent financials points upward. The company is deliberately absorbing near-term margin compression in pursuit of longer-term market dominance. In e-commerce, it has reduced free shipping minimums in Brazil to compete against rivals including Amazon and Sea Limited (NYSE: SE). On the fintech side, a significant expansion in loan volume has also brought a rise in delinquencies, forcing the company to more than double its provision for doubtful accounts.

The result: net income of $417 million in Q1 2026 fell 16% compared to the prior year, following a modest 5% profit increase across full-year 2025. The profitability picture, at least in the short run, is under pressure.

Management is addressing loan quality through enhancements to its AI assistant, making it more proactive in identifying risk — a move that could help reduce future credit losses over time.

Valuation Context

Shares of MercadoLibre are currently trading at approximately 49 times earnings, which sits well above the S&P 500's average P/E ratio of around 29. However, that figure is notably below the roughly 80 times earnings that Berkshire is estimated to have paid when it entered its Amazon position in Q1 2019. The stock also trades at a 29% discount to its mid-2025 peak, reflecting investor concern over the profitability headwinds described above.

For Berkshire watchers, the valuation context aligns with Buffett's long-held philosophy of paying a "fair price" for a "wonderful company" — a standard that Abel has indicated he intends to uphold.

What Investors Are Watching

Berkshire has made no public announcements regarding any interest in MercadoLibre. Any investment would likely surface in a future 13-F filing with the SEC. What analysts will be monitoring is whether Abel uses his tenure to demonstrate independent conviction on growth-oriented technology plays — or whether he continues to lean toward the more capital-light, mature businesses that defined the Buffett era.

MercadoLibre's ability to convert rapid revenue growth into improving profitability over the next several quarters will be a key variable. The company's trajectory in Mercado Pago, its response to rising loan losses, and competitive dynamics in Brazilian e-commerce will all factor into whether the stock's current valuation proves justified.