HSBC Launches SpaceX Coverage With $115 Target as Shares Hover Just Above That Level

HSBC Enters SpaceX Coverage With a Cautious Stance

HSBC made its first move on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) last Friday, initiating coverage of the newly public rocket and satellite company with a Hold rating and a $115 price target — a figure that landed almost exactly where the stock itself closed. Shares ended the session at $115.07, just seven cents above the bank's freshly issued target, after tumbling as much as 6% during the trading session.

The timing was notable. SpaceX went public in June at $135 per share, and the stock subsequently surged to an intraday peak of $225.64 before reversing course. Friday's close left it roughly 15% below its IPO price and about 49% off that post-debut high.

How HSBC Arrived at $115 — And Why the Math Is Telling

What makes HSBC's analysis particularly interesting is not just the conclusion, but the generosity built into the methodology. The bank constructed its valuation using a sum-of-the-parts framework, assigning estimated values to SpaceX's individual business lines. Then, in an unusual move, analysts applied a 2x premium specifically attributing CEO Elon Musk's history of turning nascent technologies into commercial industries.

Even with that founder-premium baked in, the model still returned a $115 valuation — below the IPO price and far beneath what the market was pricing in just weeks ago. The bank's conclusion was straightforward: the current share price already reflects a substantial portion of SpaceX's long-term growth narrative, including Starlink's continued subscriber expansion, increased launch cadence, and emerging artificial intelligence initiatives.

HSBC did outline a more optimistic scenario. If Starship achieves commercial viability by 2027 and launch capacity doubles, analysts see a potential upside case of $293 per share. However, that figure represents a ceiling assumption, not the base case.

Wall Street Is Deeply Divided

HSBC's caution stands in sharp contrast to broader Street sentiment. The consensus price target across all analysts covering SpaceX currently sits near $237 — more than double Friday's closing price. The range of individual targets, however, tells an even more striking story: estimates span from as low as $62 to as high as $800.

A spread of that magnitude reflects less a disagreement about assumptions and more a fundamental uncertainty about how to value a company operating at this scale, in this many directions, at this stage of development. Analysts note that valuation models built on traditional financial metrics struggle to accommodate SpaceX's unique profile.

The Fundamental Challenge: Growth Without Profits

SpaceX's financials paint a complex picture. The company generated approximately $19 billion in trailing-12-month revenue, with 2025 revenue growing at an impressive 33% year-over-year — an exceptional clip for a capital-intensive industrial business. Despite that momentum, the company remains unprofitable as it channels resources into Starship development.

With no earnings per share to anchor traditional valuation multiples, the stock currently trades at roughly 75 times trailing sales based on a market capitalization near $1.5 trillion. That kind of multiple leaves little margin for error and demands continued belief in an ambitious long-term trajectory.

First Quarterly Report as a Public Company Looms Large

The next major inflection point arrives on August 4, when SpaceX is scheduled to release its first quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded company. For investors on both sides of the valuation debate, that disclosure will represent the first opportunity to evaluate standardized financial data since the IPO.

Shortly after the report, the initial wave of insider share lockup expirations is also expected to begin, potentially adding volatility to an already sensitive trading environment. Analysts across the Street, including HSBC, will likely revisit their models once actual quarterly figures become available.

What to Watch Going Forward

For investors tracking SpaceX, several data points will carry significant weight in the months ahead: the August 4 earnings release and any forward guidance, Starship's commercial development timeline, Starlink subscriber and revenue growth trends, and how Wall Street analysts revise their models once real quarterly disclosures replace projection-based assumptions.

Data suggests the stock's current position — simultaneously below its IPO price, at a major bank's skeptical target, and less than half of its all-time high — reflects a market still searching for a consensus framework to price one of the most debated companies to go public in recent memory.